Betting Lines
| Spread | TXSO -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | TXSO -175 ALCN +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXSO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +3 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | TXSO -5.2 (-8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.0 (+20.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXSO -3.5 (-6.5) | 138.8 (+22.2) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXSO -3.2 (-6.2) | 139.7 (+21.3) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXSO -4.5 (-7.5) | 136.3 (+24.7) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TXSO -4.1 (-7.1) | 138.1 (+22.9) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | TXSO 92 – 87 ALCN |
| Jan 17, 2026 | TXSO 72 – 71 ALCN |
| Mar 4, 2025 | TXSO 75 – 59 ALCN |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TXSO 66 – 57 ALCN |
| Jan 20, 2024 | TXSO 72 – 61 ALCN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXSO | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-5 |
| Home | 7-4 | 7-3 |
| Away | 6-11 | 7-14 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 77.9 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#281) | -8.4 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#248) | -0.88 (#270) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#262) | -1.11 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.491 (#198) | 0.476 (#228) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXSO | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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