Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | ALCN +100 TXSO +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXSO +11 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | ALCN -1.2 (-12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (-9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -0.2 (-11.2) | 136.7 (-3.7) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -1.9 (-12.9) | 140.5 (-7.5) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -0.5 (-11.5) | 141.8 (-8.8) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -0.3 (-11.3) | 137.4 (-4.4) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | TXSO 92 – 87 ALCN |
| Jan 17, 2026 | TXSO 72 – 71 ALCN |
| Mar 4, 2025 | TXSO 75 – 59 ALCN |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TXSO 66 – 57 ALCN |
| Mar 5, 2024 | ALCN 82 – 79 TXSO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-3 | 7-4 |
| Away | 7-14 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 71.1 |
| Massey | -10.5 (#321) | -7.9 (#298) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.71 (#319) | -1.65 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.38 (#325) | -2.90 (#337) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#287) | 0.443 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 37.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 42.1% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 16.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.4% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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