Betting Lines
| Spread | TXSO -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | ALCN -108 TXSO -112 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALCN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXSO +1 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | ALCN -0.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.7 (-13.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -0.9 (-1.9) | 147.9 (-4.9) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -1.3 (-2.3) | 145.1 (-2.1) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -0.8 (-1.8) | 148.8 (-5.8) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -1.3 (-2.3) | 146.3 (-3.3) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | TXSO 92 – 87 ALCN |
| Mar 4, 2025 | TXSO 75 – 59 ALCN |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TXSO 66 – 57 ALCN |
| Mar 5, 2024 | ALCN 82 – 79 TXSO |
| Jan 20, 2024 | TXSO 72 – 61 ALCN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALCN | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 12-18 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 10-8 |
| Home | 5-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 2-18 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 80.0 |
| Massey | -17.3 (#356) | -14.4 (#349) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#301) | -3.51 (#360) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.32 (#312) | -4.72 (#360) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#287) | 0.379 (#347) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALCN | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 29.3 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 16.0% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.5% | 57.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 60.0% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 33.6% |
Game Analysis
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