What's the point of robbery when nothing is worth taking? "Stand and Deliver" - Adam and the Ants
Southwestern Athletic Conference · Davey L. Whitney Complex · March 4, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread ALCN -0.5 Away covered
O/U 133.5 Over
Money ALCN -115 / TXSO -105
Model Predictions
Spread Total ALCN win
Actual TXSO +16 134 Lost
Massey ALCN -1.5 (-17.5)
Massey Totals 135.1 (-1.1)
Bradley-Terry 68%
Weighted B-T 66%
Baseline Plus ML TXSO -0.4 (-15.6) 134.7 (-0.7) 39%
Model 4 ML ALCN -1.3 (-17.3) 132.9 (+1.1) 46%
Model 3 ML TXSO -0.1 (-15.9) 133.7 (+0.3) 49%
Baseline ML ALCN -0.7 (-16.7) 133.5 (+0.5) 38%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 27, 2026 TXSO 9287 ALCN
Jan 17, 2026 TXSO 7271 ALCN
Jan 18, 2025 TXSO 6657 ALCN
Mar 5, 2024 ALCN 8279 TXSO
Jan 20, 2024 TXSO 7261 ALCN

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ALCN TXSO
Overall 11-21 15-17
Conference 11-7 12-6
Home 6-3 9-4
Away 5-17 6-12
Neutral 0-1 0-1
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 65.3 70.4
Avg Pts Against 72.4 72.4
Massey -9.8 (#321) -8.0 (#291)
Bradley-Terry -1.60 (#314) -1.80 (#324)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.88 (#302) -1.90 (#304)
RPI 0.447 (#285) 0.442 (#292)
Shooting & Four Factors ALCN TXSO
FG% 41.1% 40.4%
3PT% 32.7% 31.8%
REB / G 33.8 36.7
OREB / G 11.9 11.5
AST / TO 0.79 0.92
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.1% 46.1%
TOV% 19.8% 19.4%
ORB% 33.6% 29.9%
FT Rate 22.2% 21.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.7% 47.7%
Opp TOV% 18.3% 20.2%
DRB% 66.6% 65.3%
Opp FT Rate 23.7% 25.6%

Game Analysis

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