Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | UCSB -700 UCR +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +11 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -11.8 (-0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (-20.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -10.0 (+1.0) | 146.5 (-17.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -10.5 (+0.5) | 145.7 (-16.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -11.6 (-0.6) | 146.5 (-17.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -10.1 (+0.9) | 147.5 (-18.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | UCSB 76 – 68 UCR |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UCR 81 – 69 UCSB |
| Jan 17, 2025 | UCSB 66 – 63 UCR |
| Mar 10, 2024 | UCR 81 – 64 UCSB |
| Dec 31, 2023 | UCR 79 – 77 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 5-15 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-8 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 79.1 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#137) | -7.1 (#281) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#153) | -1.25 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#145) | -1.27 (#259) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#153) | 0.456 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.2% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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