Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | UCR -115 UCSB -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +12 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | UCR -1.2 (+10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (+7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -1.7 (+10.3) | 141.2 (+8.8) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -2.1 (+9.9) | 139.1 (+10.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -1.5 (+10.5) | 141.4 (+8.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -1.0 (+11.0) | 142.3 (+7.7) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UCSB 70 – 59 UCR |
| Feb 13, 2026 | UCSB 76 – 68 UCR |
| Jan 17, 2025 | UCSB 66 – 63 UCR |
| Mar 10, 2024 | UCR 81 – 64 UCSB |
| Dec 31, 2023 | UCR 79 – 77 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-1 | 12-5 |
| Away | 7-11 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 0.0 (#159) | 2.0 (#127) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#86) | 0.38 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#110) | 0.22 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#79) | 0.486 (#206) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 55.7% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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