Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | UCSB -163 UCR +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +17 | 145 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSB -5.5 (-22.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (+0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -4.3 (-21.3) | 144.7 (+0.3) | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -3.7 (-20.7) | 144.4 (+0.6) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -3.8 (-20.8) | 146.2 (-1.2) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -4.0 (-21.0) | 145.9 (-0.9) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UCSB 70 – 59 UCR |
| Feb 13, 2026 | UCSB 76 – 68 UCR |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UCR 81 – 69 UCSB |
| Jan 17, 2025 | UCSB 66 – 63 UCR |
| Dec 31, 2023 | UCR 79 – 77 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 10-10 |
| Home | 9-7 | 10-5 |
| Away | 6-7 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#181) | -3.5 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#190) | -0.50 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#190) | -0.55 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#205) | 0.476 (#236) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.9% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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