Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | UCSB -275 UCR +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +3 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -7.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (-10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -4.2 (-1.2) | 136.6 (-7.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -4.2 (-1.2) | 137.2 (-8.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -4.9 (-1.9) | 137.6 (-8.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -4.4 (-1.4) | 137.7 (-8.7) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UCSB 70 – 59 UCR |
| Feb 13, 2026 | UCSB 76 – 68 UCR |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UCR 81 – 69 UCSB |
| Mar 10, 2024 | UCR 81 – 64 UCSB |
| Dec 31, 2023 | UCR 79 – 77 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 14-6 |
| Home | 12-5 | 14-1 |
| Away | 7-7 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 76.4 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#128) | -1.4 (#188) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#144) | 0.82 (#101) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#165) | 0.42 (#137) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#209) | 0.549 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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