Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | UCR +250 UCSB -310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +8 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSB -7.6 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.9 (-4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSB -6.9 (-1.1) | 142.7 (+1.3) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -6.0 (-2.0) | 144.5 (-0.5) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -6.5 (-1.5) | 145.9 (-1.9) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -6.4 (-1.6) | 146.3 (-2.3) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UCSB 70 – 59 UCR |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UCR 81 – 69 UCSB |
| Jan 17, 2025 | UCSB 66 – 63 UCR |
| Mar 10, 2024 | UCR 81 – 64 UCSB |
| Dec 31, 2023 | UCR 79 – 77 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 11-9 |
| Home | 7-7 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-15 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#292) | 2.4 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#270) | 0.45 (#127) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#247) | 0.54 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#242) | 0.530 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 31.4% |
Game Analysis
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