Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | UCR +138 UCSB -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +2 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | UCR -1.8 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (+13.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -1.7 (+0.3) | 140.7 (+15.3) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -1.3 (+0.7) | 138.6 (+17.4) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -1.7 (+0.3) | 140.8 (+15.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -1.0 (+1.0) | 141.1 (+14.9) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UCSB 70 – 59 UCR |
| Feb 13, 2026 | UCSB 76 – 68 UCR |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UCR 81 – 69 UCSB |
| Jan 17, 2025 | UCSB 66 – 63 UCR |
| Mar 10, 2024 | UCR 81 – 64 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-11 |
| Home | 10-5 | 9-7 |
| Away | 4-12 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#240) | -0.7 (#182) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#257) | 0.16 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#220) | -0.04 (#173) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#250) | 0.507 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.5% | 48.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 12.7% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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