And I'm telling you son, well, it ain't no fun staring straight down a forty-four. "Gimme Three Steps" - Lynyrd Skynyrd
Big West Conference · SRC Arena · December 31, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread UCSB -2.5 Home covered
O/U 144.5 Over
Money UCR +138 / UCSB -125
Model Predictions
Spread Total UCR win
Actual UCR +2 156 Won
Massey UCR -1.8 (+0.2)
Massey Totals 142.9 (+13.1)
Bradley-Terry 49%
Weighted B-T 64%
Baseline Plus ML UCR -1.7 (+0.3) 140.8 (+15.2) 60%
Model 4 ML UCR -1.3 (+0.7) 138.6 (+17.4) 61%
Model 3 ML UCR -1.7 (+0.3) 140.7 (+15.3) 58%
Baseline ML UCR -1.0 (+1.0) 141.1 (+14.9) 57%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 27, 2026 UCSB 7059 UCR
Feb 13, 2026 UCSB 7668 UCR
Feb 16, 2025 UCR 8169 UCSB
Jan 17, 2025 UCSB 6663 UCR
Mar 10, 2024 UCR 8164 UCSB

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UCR UCSB
Overall 16-18 16-15
Conference 10-10 9-11
Home 10-5 9-7
Away 4-12 6-7
Neutral 2-1 1-1
Last 5 2-3 3-2
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 69.3 73.1
Avg Pts Against 72.4 73.3
Massey -3.4 (#240) -0.7 (#182)
Bradley-Terry -0.81 (#257) 0.16 (#159)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.54 (#220) -0.04 (#173)
RPI 0.458 (#250) 0.507 (#157)
Shooting & Four Factors UCR UCSB
FG% 38.5% 48.6%
3PT% 32.3% 35.8%
REB / G 34.8 38.4
OREB / G 10.8 8.6
AST / TO 1.39 0.95
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.2% 53.5%
TOV% 14.6% 20.3%
ORB% 28.2% 27.0%
FT Rate 16.7% 26.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.7% 49.4%
Opp TOV% 15.2% 12.7%
DRB% 73.9% 76.6%
Opp FT Rate 23.1% 18.7%

Game Analysis

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