Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | PRES +575 HPU -850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +6 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | HPU -12.3 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -10.8 (+4.8) | 143.5 (+8.5) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -12.1 (+6.1) | 144.8 (+7.2) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -10.8 (+4.8) | 146.4 (+5.6) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -12.5 (+6.5) | 143.9 (+8.1) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | HPU 84 – 81 PRES |
| Feb 1, 2025 | HPU 84 – 72 PRES |
| Jan 19, 2025 | HPU 77 – 66 PRES |
| Feb 4, 2024 | HPU 78 – 68 PRES |
| Jan 18, 2024 | HPU 86 – 83 PRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRES | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 31-5 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 15-1 |
| Home | 10-4 | 17-1 |
| Away | 3-13 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 86.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 72.8 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#277) | 8.3 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.19 (#274) | 0.89 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.83 (#294) | 0.91 (#103) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#249) | 0.548 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRES | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 32.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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