Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | UNCW -1350 NCAT +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +23 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -12.9 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (+7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -13.1 (+9.9) | 139.4 (+13.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -11.4 (+11.6) | 139.9 (+13.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -12.1 (+10.9) | 140.8 (+12.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -12.9 (+10.1) | 141.2 (+11.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 30, 2025 | UNCW 87 – 78 NCAT |
| Jan 31, 2025 | UNCW 83 – 59 NCAT |
| Feb 16, 2024 | UNCW 73 – 54 NCAT |
| Feb 3, 2023 | UNCW 87 – 63 NCAT |
| Jan 7, 2023 | UNCW 66 – 61 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 4-14 |
| Home | 15-4 | 6-6 |
| Away | 12-2 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 78.5 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#115) | -6.0 (#262) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#70) | -1.04 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#83) | -1.48 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.573 (#55) | 0.451 (#275) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 34.5% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 32.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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