Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | NCAT +425 UNCW -575 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +9 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -4.8 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (+20.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -4.9 (-4.1) | 139.3 (+25.7) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -6.6 (-2.4) | 140.7 (+24.3) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -4.9 (-4.1) | 138.7 (+26.3) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -4.7 (-4.3) | 137.7 (+27.3) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UNCW 88 – 65 NCAT |
| Jan 31, 2025 | UNCW 83 – 59 NCAT |
| Feb 16, 2024 | UNCW 73 – 54 NCAT |
| Feb 3, 2023 | UNCW 87 – 63 NCAT |
| Jan 7, 2023 | UNCW 66 – 61 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 15-3 |
| Home | 6-6 | 15-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 12-2 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 68.1 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#259) | 3.0 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#254) | 0.57 (#132) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.50 (#264) | 0.61 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#295) | 0.532 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 40.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 40.4% |
| FT Rate | 36.7% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.3% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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