Betting Lines
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | UNCW -450 NCAT +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +24 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -10.5 (+13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (+13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -9.1 (+14.9) | 138.3 (+11.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -9.6 (+14.4) | 136.6 (+13.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -7.9 (+16.1) | 136.8 (+13.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -8.4 (+15.6) | 138.4 (+11.6) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UNCW 88 – 65 NCAT |
| Dec 30, 2025 | UNCW 87 – 78 NCAT |
| Jan 31, 2025 | UNCW 83 – 59 NCAT |
| Feb 16, 2024 | UNCW 73 – 54 NCAT |
| Jan 7, 2023 | UNCW 66 – 61 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 8-6 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.0 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#165) | -6.7 (#289) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#74) | -0.77 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#78) | -1.16 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#86) | 0.467 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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