Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | NCAT +230 UNCW -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +5 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -6.2 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (-15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -7.7 (+2.7) | 141.7 (-14.7) | 24% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -8.0 (+3.0) | 140.8 (-13.8) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -7.1 (+2.1) | 144.0 (-17.0) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -6.5 (+1.5) | 145.1 (-18.1) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UNCW 88 – 65 NCAT |
| Dec 30, 2025 | UNCW 87 – 78 NCAT |
| Jan 31, 2025 | UNCW 83 – 59 NCAT |
| Feb 16, 2024 | UNCW 73 – 54 NCAT |
| Feb 3, 2023 | UNCW 87 – 63 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-10 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 65.2 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#288) | 4.1 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#252) | 2.21 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#259) | 2.56 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#247) | 0.586 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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