Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -22.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | UNCW -4000 NCAT +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +19 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -21.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.2 (-23.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -17.6 (+1.4) | 145.2 (-18.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -15.9 (+3.1) | 147.0 (-20.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -17.0 (+2.0) | 146.7 (-19.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -16.5 (+2.5) | 145.9 (-18.9) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UNCW 88 – 65 NCAT |
| Dec 30, 2025 | UNCW 87 – 78 NCAT |
| Jan 31, 2025 | UNCW 83 – 59 NCAT |
| Feb 3, 2023 | UNCW 87 – 63 NCAT |
| Jan 7, 2023 | UNCW 66 – 61 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-10 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-2 | 4-7 |
| Away | 10-6 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L10 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#103) | -13.2 (#341) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#79) | -1.77 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#94) | -2.27 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.574 (#57) | 0.433 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 12.5% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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