Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | NCAT +1300 UNCW -4000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +24 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -10.0 (-14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.8 (-13.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -9.2 (-14.8) | 151.8 (-9.8) | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -10.5 (-13.5) | 150.9 (-8.9) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -9.4 (-14.6) | 149.6 (-7.6) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -9.0 (-15.0) | 151.5 (-9.5) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UNCW 88 – 65 NCAT |
| Dec 30, 2025 | UNCW 87 – 78 NCAT |
| Feb 16, 2024 | UNCW 73 – 54 NCAT |
| Feb 3, 2023 | UNCW 87 – 63 NCAT |
| Jan 7, 2023 | UNCW 66 – 61 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 14-4 |
| Home | 5-9 | 15-3 |
| Away | 2-15 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 70.3 |
| Massey | -10.9 (#326) | 2.4 (#122) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.88 (#354) | 0.80 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.35 (#347) | 0.80 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.371 (#352) | 0.551 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 13.1% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 31.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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