Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | UVM -520 UML +390 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +2 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | UVM -9.6 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (-22.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -9.9 (-7.9) | 146.8 (-16.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -8.2 (-6.2) | 145.5 (-15.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -8.6 (-6.6) | 146.0 (-16.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -9.0 (-7.0) | 146.5 (-16.5) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | UVM 77 – 68 UML |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UVM 85 – 61 UML |
| Jan 9, 2025 | UVM 67 – 63 UML |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UVM 66 – 61 UML |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UVM 74 – 62 UML |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 9-7 |
| Home | 13-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-7 | 5-14 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#230) | -10.5 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#232) | -1.77 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#228) | -2.19 (#319) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#184) | 0.461 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 77.7% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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