Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | UVM -400 UML +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +5 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | UVM -6.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (-11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -6.1 (-1.1) | 136.6 (-9.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -6.3 (-1.3) | 135.4 (-8.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -6.3 (-1.3) | 136.7 (-9.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -6.8 (-1.8) | 138.7 (-11.7) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UVM 66 – 64 UML |
| Jan 22, 2026 | UVM 77 – 68 UML |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UVM 85 – 61 UML |
| Jan 9, 2025 | UVM 67 – 63 UML |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UVM 74 – 62 UML |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 11-5 |
| Home | 16-1 | 12-3 |
| Away | 10-4 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.8 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#105) | 1.4 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#71) | 0.46 (#130) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#76) | 0.47 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#27) | 0.527 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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