Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | UVM -190 UML +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +24 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | UVM -2.1 (+21.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -2.3 (+21.7) | 137.8 (+8.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -2.2 (+21.8) | 136.0 (+10.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -1.4 (+22.6) | 136.8 (+9.2) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -1.9 (+22.1) | 138.2 (+7.8) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UVM 66 – 64 UML |
| Jan 22, 2026 | UVM 77 – 68 UML |
| Jan 9, 2025 | UVM 67 – 63 UML |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UVM 66 – 61 UML |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UVM 74 – 62 UML |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 6-10 |
| Home | 13-3 | 14-4 |
| Away | 7-8 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 76.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.0 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#264) | -4.9 (#245) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#201) | -0.72 (#236) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#208) | -0.58 (#212) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#159) | 0.490 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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