Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | UML -240 UVM +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UML win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +4 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | UML -9.3 (-13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -7.5 (-11.5) | 137.9 (-7.9) | 74% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UML -6.7 (-10.7) | 138.0 (-8.0) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UML -7.3 (-11.3) | 138.4 (-8.4) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UML -7.6 (-11.6) | 137.1 (-7.1) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UVM 66 – 64 UML |
| Jan 22, 2026 | UVM 77 – 68 UML |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UVM 85 – 61 UML |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UVM 66 – 61 UML |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UVM 74 – 62 UML |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UML | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 13-3 |
| Home | 14-4 | 13-3 |
| Away | 3-11 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.1 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 65.0 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#174) | -5.9 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.87 (#103) | -0.89 (#255) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#98) | -1.11 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#86) | 0.456 (#248) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UML | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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