Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | UVM -333 UML +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +12 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | UVM -6.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (-3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -7.1 (+4.9) | 139.8 (-3.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -6.0 (+6.0) | 138.4 (-2.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -7.1 (+4.9) | 138.4 (-2.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -6.5 (+5.5) | 138.9 (-2.9) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UVM 66 – 64 UML |
| Jan 22, 2026 | UVM 77 – 68 UML |
| Feb 22, 2025 | UVM 85 – 61 UML |
| Jan 9, 2025 | UVM 67 – 63 UML |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UVM 66 – 61 UML |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 11-5 |
| Home | 16-1 | 12-3 |
| Away | 10-4 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.8 | 72.2 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#102) | 2.3 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#80) | 0.58 (#124) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#84) | 0.59 (#133) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#43) | 0.533 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 77.2% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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