Betting Lines
| Spread | STO -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | STO -238 SFPA +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STO +26 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | STO -6.3 (+19.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.0 (+39.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STO -3.4 (+22.6) | 135.2 (+44.8) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STO -2.6 (+23.4) | 137.0 (+43.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STO -3.9 (+22.1) | 134.1 (+45.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STO -4.2 (+21.8) | 135.5 (+44.5) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 19, 2026 | SFPA 63 – 61 STO |
| Feb 14, 2025 | STO 79 – 74 SFPA |
| Jan 5, 2025 | STO 64 – 60 SFPA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | STO 72 – 63 SFPA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | SFPA 72 – 63 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STO | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-5 | 5-8 |
| Away | 4-15 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 83.1 |
| Massey | -12.6 (#334) | -15.9 (#352) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.34 (#344) | -2.81 (#355) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.09 (#348) | -3.67 (#354) |
| RPI | 0.408 (#345) | 0.405 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STO | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 58.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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