Betting Lines
| Spread | STO -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | SFPA +105 STO -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STO +4 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | SFPA -1.1 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (-22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STO -0.5 (-3.5) | 144.5 (-20.5) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFPA -0.7 (-4.7) | 144.4 (-20.4) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STO -0.0 (-4.0) | 144.5 (-20.5) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STO -0.2 (-3.8) | 145.0 (-21.0) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | STO 103 – 77 SFPA |
| Jan 19, 2026 | SFPA 63 – 61 STO |
| Feb 14, 2025 | STO 79 – 74 SFPA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | STO 72 – 63 SFPA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | SFPA 72 – 63 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 7-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-13 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -10.3 (#329) | -7.1 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#266) | -0.71 (#235) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.55 (#277) | -0.74 (#224) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#201) | 0.449 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 13.9% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.6% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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