Betting Lines
| Spread | SFPA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | SFPA -115 STO -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFPA +2 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | STO -3.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (-19.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STO -1.4 (+3.4) | 137.1 (-13.1) | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STO -3.8 (+5.8) | 138.5 (-14.5) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STO -2.4 (+4.4) | 136.4 (-12.4) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STO -2.5 (+4.5) | 135.9 (-11.9) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | STO 103 – 77 SFPA |
| Feb 14, 2025 | STO 79 – 74 SFPA |
| Jan 5, 2025 | STO 64 – 60 SFPA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | STO 72 – 63 SFPA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | SFPA 72 – 63 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-24 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 5-8 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-14 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.1 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -17.9 (#359) | -11.6 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.83 (#350) | -2.65 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.10 (#355) | -3.39 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.397 (#339) | 0.385 (#347) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 15.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.6% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 12.4% |
| DRB% | 65.5% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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