Betting Lines
| Spread | SFPA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | SFPA -138 STO +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFPA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFPA +9 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | SFPA -4.6 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.8 (+1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFPA -3.3 (+5.7) | 133.5 (+1.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFPA -3.0 (+6.0) | 133.1 (+1.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFPA -3.1 (+5.9) | 132.8 (+2.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SFPA -3.4 (+5.6) | 132.4 (+2.6) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | STO 103 – 77 SFPA |
| Jan 19, 2026 | SFPA 63 – 61 STO |
| Feb 14, 2025 | STO 79 – 74 SFPA |
| Jan 5, 2025 | STO 64 – 60 SFPA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | STO 72 – 63 SFPA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFPA | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-22 | 4-27 |
| Conference | 3-13 | 2-14 |
| Home | 6-8 | 4-8 |
| Away | 2-14 | 0-19 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L6 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.2 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -14.4 (#349) | -15.6 (#357) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.37 (#344) | -3.24 (#356) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.28 (#349) | -3.88 (#358) |
| RPI | 0.393 (#338) | 0.383 (#348) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFPA | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 22.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.