Betting Lines
| Spread | STO -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | STO -120 SFPA +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STO +9 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | STO -2.1 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.9 (+0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STO -1.4 (+7.6) | 136.8 (-1.8) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STO -0.7 (+8.3) | 133.9 (+1.1) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STO -0.2 (+8.8) | 135.5 (-0.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFPA -0.2 (+9.2) | 135.8 (-0.8) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | STO 103 – 77 SFPA |
| Jan 19, 2026 | SFPA 63 – 61 STO |
| Feb 14, 2025 | STO 79 – 74 SFPA |
| Jan 5, 2025 | STO 64 – 60 SFPA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | SFPA 72 – 63 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STO | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-27 | 8-22 |
| Conference | 2-14 | 3-13 |
| Home | 4-8 | 6-8 |
| Away | 0-19 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.5 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -15.6 (#354) | -14.4 (#350) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.38 (#358) | -2.44 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.01 (#359) | -3.28 (#349) |
| RPI | 0.374 (#357) | 0.390 (#347) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STO | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 15.7% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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