Betting Lines
| Spread | STO -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | STO -175 SFPA +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STO +5 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | STO -4.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (+12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STO -4.1 (+0.9) | 139.0 (+14.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STO -3.1 (+1.9) | 135.6 (+17.4) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STO -3.0 (+2.0) | 136.7 (+16.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STO -3.3 (+1.7) | 135.1 (+17.9) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | STO 103 – 77 SFPA |
| Jan 19, 2026 | SFPA 63 – 61 STO |
| Jan 5, 2025 | STO 64 – 60 SFPA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | STO 72 – 63 SFPA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | SFPA 72 – 63 STO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STO | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 8-8 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 6-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 73.4 |
| Massey | -8.8 (#302) | -10.3 (#322) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#293) | -1.59 (#309) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.70 (#289) | -2.02 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#302) | 0.447 (#270) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STO | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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