We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
Coastal Athletic Association · Kaplan Arena · February 27, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread W&M -11.5 Away covered
O/U 164.5 Under
Money W&M -850 / NE +575
Model Predictions
Spread Total W&M win
Actual W&M +7 161 Won
Massey W&M -12.8 (-5.8)
Massey Totals 167.4 (-6.4)
Bradley-Terry 90%
Weighted B-T 94%
Baseline Plus ML W&M -12.3 (-5.3) 157.5 (+3.5) 87%
Model 4 ML W&M -9.9 (-2.9) 157.6 (+3.4) 85%
Model 3 ML W&M -12.0 (-5.0) 155.0 (+6.0) 88%
Baseline ML W&M -12.2 (-5.2) 157.7 (+3.3) 87%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 13, 2026 W&M 9467 NE
Mar 1, 2025 NE 7068 W&M
Jan 27, 2024 W&M 7268 NE
Feb 18, 2023 NE 6957 W&M
Jan 6, 2023 W&M 6966 NE

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings W&M NE
Overall 20-12 7-24
Conference 10-8 2-16
Home 11-2 2-10
Away 6-9 3-13
Neutral 3-1 2-1
Last 5 2-3 0-5
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 81.5 74.9
Avg Pts Against 78.9 81.0
Massey 2.9 (#125) -7.0 (#278)
Bradley-Terry 0.19 (#152) -1.50 (#304)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.38 (#135) -1.72 (#284)
RPI 0.527 (#119) 0.439 (#297)
Shooting & Four Factors W&M NE
FG% 47.4% 45.7%
3PT% 34.0% 33.6%
REB / G 34.6 31.2
OREB / G 8.9 9.5
AST / TO 1.40 1.33
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.8% 52.1%
TOV% 17.2% 16.3%
ORB% 26.7% 27.1%
FT Rate 30.2% 20.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.1% 57.0%
Opp TOV% 18.8% 17.6%
DRB% 68.4% 68.8%
Opp FT Rate 25.0% 29.4%

Game Analysis

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