Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | STMN -175 NDSU +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STMN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +22 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | STMN -3.3 (+18.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.4 (-10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -3.1 (+18.9) | 154.6 (-8.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -2.1 (+19.9) | 152.9 (-6.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -3.0 (+19.0) | 152.0 (-6.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -3.4 (+18.6) | 154.6 (-8.6) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | NDSU 68 – 65 STMN |
| Feb 2, 2025 | STMN 79 – 62 NDSU |
| Jan 3, 2025 | STMN 89 – 85 NDSU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | STMN 68 – 58 NDSU |
| Feb 23, 2024 | NDSU 64 – 50 STMN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STMN | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 14-2 |
| Home | 14-1 | 13-1 |
| Away | 8-7 | 10-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 78.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#114) | 3.6 (#118) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#139) | 0.68 (#103) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#122) | 0.76 (#109) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#103) | 0.541 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STMN | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.4% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.68 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.8% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 22.0% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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