Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | STMN -145 NDSU +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STMN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +17 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | STMN -2.1 (+14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.0 (-21.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -2.3 (+14.7) | 152.3 (-11.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -2.5 (+14.5) | 156.0 (-15.0) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -2.1 (+14.9) | 157.1 (-16.1) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -2.9 (+14.1) | 157.2 (-16.2) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | STMN 84 – 62 NDSU |
| Jan 17, 2026 | NDSU 68 – 65 STMN |
| Jan 3, 2025 | STMN 89 – 85 NDSU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | STMN 68 – 58 NDSU |
| Feb 23, 2024 | NDSU 64 – 50 STMN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STMN | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 10-6 |
| Home | 14-0 | 11-4 |
| Away | 7-8 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 80.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 76.0 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#108) | 4.6 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#101) | 0.36 (#141) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#109) | 0.40 (#142) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#117) | 0.508 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STMN | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 39.0% | 39.8% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.9 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.4% | 58.4% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 21.7% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 10.3% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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