Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | NDSU -150 STMN +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +4 | 174 | Lost |
| Massey | NDSU -6.1 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.4 (+15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -5.3 (-9.3) | 154.1 (+19.9) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -3.3 (-7.3) | 155.1 (+18.9) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -5.9 (-9.9) | 153.5 (+20.5) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -5.0 (-9.0) | 154.6 (+19.4) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | STMN 84 – 62 NDSU |
| Jan 17, 2026 | NDSU 68 – 65 STMN |
| Feb 2, 2025 | STMN 79 – 62 NDSU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | STMN 68 – 58 NDSU |
| Feb 23, 2024 | NDSU 64 – 50 STMN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 12-4 |
| Home | 11-4 | 14-0 |
| Away | 8-6 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#86) | 4.6 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#112) | 0.47 (#130) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#127) | 0.80 (#117) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#133) | 0.506 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 41.5% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.4% | 57.0% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 21.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 9.8% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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