Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | NDSU +130 STMN -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +14 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | STMN -2.2 (+16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (-26.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -2.0 (+16.0) | 140.2 (-26.2) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -2.2 (+16.2) | 137.8 (-23.8) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -1.3 (+15.3) | 141.3 (-27.3) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -1.9 (+15.9) | 142.7 (-28.7) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | STMN 84 – 62 NDSU |
| Jan 17, 2026 | NDSU 68 – 65 STMN |
| Feb 2, 2025 | STMN 79 – 62 NDSU |
| Jan 3, 2025 | STMN 89 – 85 NDSU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | STMN 68 – 58 NDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 9-7 |
| Home | 10-4 | 12-2 |
| Away | 5-11 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#254) | 1.0 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#237) | -0.26 (#200) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#257) | 0.02 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#212) | 0.483 (#210) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 75.1% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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