Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | NDSU -142 STMN +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +3 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | NDSU -2.9 (+0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.5 (-21.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -3.6 (-0.6) | 148.0 (-15.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -3.6 (-0.6) | 149.1 (-16.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -3.7 (-0.7) | 150.5 (-17.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -3.6 (-0.6) | 149.0 (-16.0) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | STMN 84 – 62 NDSU |
| Feb 2, 2025 | STMN 79 – 62 NDSU |
| Jan 3, 2025 | STMN 89 – 85 NDSU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | STMN 68 – 58 NDSU |
| Feb 23, 2024 | NDSU 64 – 50 STMN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 12-4 |
| Home | 13-1 | 14-1 |
| Away | 10-5 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 73.1 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#131) | 3.2 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#125) | 0.87 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#120) | 0.88 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#150) | 0.537 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 50.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 6.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 58.5% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 20.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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