Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | STMN -200 NDSU +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STMN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +10 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | STMN -6.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.2 (-11.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STMN -5.7 (+4.3) | 137.1 (-11.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STMN -4.6 (+5.4) | 134.7 (-8.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STMN -5.5 (+4.5) | 137.3 (-11.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STMN -5.7 (+4.3) | 138.0 (-12.0) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | STMN 84 – 62 NDSU |
| Jan 17, 2026 | NDSU 68 – 65 STMN |
| Feb 2, 2025 | STMN 79 – 62 NDSU |
| Jan 3, 2025 | STMN 89 – 85 NDSU |
| Feb 23, 2024 | NDSU 64 – 50 STMN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STMN | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 8-8 |
| Home | 12-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#144) | -5.2 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#209) | -0.66 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#180) | -1.06 (#266) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#225) | 0.484 (#215) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STMN | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 12.9% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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