Betting Lines
| Spread | WKU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | WKU -225 NMSU +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WKU +23 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | WKU -3.7 (+19.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (+12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WKU -3.0 (+20.0) | 147.1 (+15.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WKU -3.4 (+19.6) | 145.7 (+17.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WKU -3.7 (+19.3) | 147.2 (+15.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WKU -3.4 (+19.6) | 148.6 (+14.4) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | NMSU 80 – 64 WKU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | NMSU 65 – 47 WKU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | WKU 101 – 69 NMSU |
| Mar 15, 2024 | WKU 89 – 69 NMSU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | WKU 72 – 58 NMSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WKU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 8-12 |
| Home | 12-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 73.8 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#148) | 0.1 (#162) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#143) | -0.45 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#148) | -0.26 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#121) | 0.491 (#207) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WKU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.7% | 32.1% |
Game Analysis
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