Betting Lines
| Spread | CCSU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | CCSU -185 MERC +154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCSU +2 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | CCSU -2.1 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (+21.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCSU -3.2 (-1.2) | 134.9 (+23.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCSU -1.9 (+0.1) | 135.8 (+22.2) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CCSU -1.8 (+0.2) | 136.3 (+21.7) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCSU -1.2 (+0.8) | 137.3 (+20.7) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 19, 2026 | MERC 79 – 61 CCSU |
| Feb 14, 2025 | CCSU 73 – 63 MERC |
| Jan 5, 2025 | CCSU 62 – 50 MERC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCSU | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-12 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 8-8 | 5-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#292) | -7.1 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#259) | -1.64 (#314) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#282) | -2.01 (#309) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#244) | 0.444 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCSU | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 29.6% |
Game Analysis
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