Betting Lines
| Spread | CCSU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | MERC +320 CCSU -425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MERC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCSU +12 | 112 | Lost |
| Massey | CCSU -6.3 (-5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.2 (-14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CCSU -6.4 (-5.6) | 128.8 (-16.8) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCSU -6.4 (-5.6) | 131.0 (-19.0) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CCSU -6.1 (-5.9) | 131.5 (-19.5) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCSU -6.4 (-5.6) | 131.0 (-19.0) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | CCSU 80 – 78 MERC |
| Jan 19, 2026 | MERC 79 – 61 CCSU |
| Feb 14, 2025 | CCSU 73 – 63 MERC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MERC | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 25-7 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 14-2 |
| Home | 11-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-14 | 12-3 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 63.1 |
| Massey | -10.9 (#335) | -0.4 (#165) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#292) | 1.07 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.92 (#295) | 0.79 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#269) | 0.571 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MERC | CCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 26.0 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.5% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 64.7% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 15.0% |
Game Analysis
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