Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | MTSU -410 UTEP +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +10 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | MTSU -8.6 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -7.2 (+2.8) | 138.0 (+6.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -7.9 (+2.1) | 137.6 (+6.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -7.1 (+2.9) | 135.1 (+8.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -6.8 (+3.2) | 136.9 (+7.1) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 9, 2026 | UTEP 83 – 80 MTSU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MTSU 76 – 75 UTEP |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MTSU 71 – 68 UTEP |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MTSU 96 – 90 UTEP |
| Jan 19, 2024 | UTEP 73 – 59 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 7-13 |
| Home | 11-4 | 9-7 |
| Away | 5-8 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#158) | -5.2 (#248) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#192) | -1.11 (#269) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#177) | -1.26 (#258) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#139) | 0.462 (#255) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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