Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | MTSU -125 UTEP +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +6 | 186 | Won |
| Massey | UTEP -2.3 (+8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.2 (+58.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTEP -0.9 (+6.9) | 133.4 (+52.6) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTEP -2.3 (+8.3) | 133.6 (+52.4) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTEP -2.6 (+8.6) | 134.3 (+51.7) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTEP -2.0 (+8.0) | 133.8 (+52.2) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | MTSU 77 – 67 UTEP |
| Jan 9, 2026 | UTEP 83 – 80 MTSU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MTSU 76 – 75 UTEP |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MTSU 71 – 68 UTEP |
| Jan 19, 2024 | UTEP 73 – 59 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 7-9 |
| Home | 11-6 | 13-5 |
| Away | 1-10 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.4 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 69.1 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#296) | -2.0 (#200) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#265) | -0.43 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#254) | -0.40 (#206) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#281) | 0.461 (#248) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 31.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 26.1% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 32.7% |
Game Analysis
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