Betting Lines
| Spread | UTEP -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | UTEP -275 MTSU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTEP +14 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | UTEP -7.7 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.7 (+11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTEP -4.6 (+9.4) | 127.5 (+4.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTEP -4.3 (+9.7) | 124.9 (+7.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTEP -4.2 (+9.8) | 125.7 (+6.3) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTEP -4.2 (+9.8) | 127.2 (+4.8) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | MTSU 77 – 67 UTEP |
| Jan 9, 2026 | UTEP 83 – 80 MTSU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MTSU 76 – 75 UTEP |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MTSU 71 – 68 UTEP |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MTSU 96 – 90 UTEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTEP | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 7-9 |
| Home | 13-5 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 64.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#245) | -8.2 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#248) | -1.36 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#243) | -1.46 (#285) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#277) | 0.417 (#309) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTEP | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 38.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 26.4% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 44.1% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 34.3% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.7% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.4% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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