Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | MTSU -170 UTEP +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +3 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | MTSU -5.9 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (-6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTSU -3.5 (-0.5) | 143.6 (-4.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -4.9 (-1.9) | 141.8 (-2.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -5.2 (-2.2) | 141.2 (-2.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -4.7 (-1.7) | 141.9 (-2.9) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | MTSU 77 – 67 UTEP |
| Jan 9, 2026 | UTEP 83 – 80 MTSU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MTSU 76 – 75 UTEP |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MTSU 96 – 90 UTEP |
| Jan 19, 2024 | UTEP 73 – 59 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-5 | 11-5 |
| Away | 8-5 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#106) | 0.9 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#96) | 0.91 (#97) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#102) | 0.54 (#133) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#64) | 0.544 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 28.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 24.7% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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