Betting Lines
| Spread | UTM -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | UTM -375 TNTC +295 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTM +15 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | UTM -10.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.2 (-22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTM -8.9 (+6.1) | 131.7 (-18.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTM -8.4 (+6.6) | 131.7 (-18.7) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTM -8.3 (+6.7) | 129.1 (-16.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTM -8.3 (+6.7) | 130.1 (-17.1) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | UTM 86 – 62 TNTC |
| Mar 6, 2025 | UTM 70 – 67 TNTC |
| Feb 21, 2025 | TNTC 71 – 66 UTM |
| Jan 25, 2025 | TNTC 89 – 85 UTM |
| Mar 1, 2024 | UTM 80 – 69 TNTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTM | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 8-12 |
| Home | 12-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 8-6 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.7 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#201) | -9.6 (#306) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#188) | -1.52 (#306) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#199) | -1.96 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#180) | 0.454 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTM | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 38.3% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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