Betting Lines
| Spread | TNTC -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | TNTC -135 UTM +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNTC +5 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | TNTC -3.3 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (-11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNTC -2.0 (+3.0) | 142.7 (-5.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNTC -1.0 (+4.0) | 144.9 (-7.9) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNTC -2.2 (+2.8) | 142.3 (-5.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNTC -2.0 (+3.0) | 143.0 (-6.0) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UTM 64 – 49 TNTC |
| Dec 20, 2025 | UTM 86 – 62 TNTC |
| Mar 6, 2025 | UTM 70 – 67 TNTC |
| Jan 25, 2025 | TNTC 89 – 85 UTM |
| Mar 1, 2024 | UTM 80 – 69 TNTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNTC | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-11 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#283) | -7.4 (#285) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#276) | -1.48 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.68 (#292) | -1.96 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#255) | 0.451 (#271) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNTC | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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