Betting Lines
| Spread | UTM -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | UTM -280 TNTC +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNTC +4 | 174 | Lost |
| Massey | UTM -5.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (+28.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTM -3.8 (-7.8) | 146.3 (+27.7) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTM -5.5 (-9.5) | 148.1 (+25.9) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTM -3.6 (-7.6) | 143.7 (+30.3) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTM -3.9 (-7.9) | 145.2 (+28.8) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UTM 64 – 49 TNTC |
| Dec 20, 2025 | UTM 86 – 62 TNTC |
| Mar 6, 2025 | UTM 70 – 67 TNTC |
| Feb 21, 2025 | TNTC 71 – 66 UTM |
| Mar 1, 2024 | UTM 80 – 69 TNTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTM | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 10-10 |
| Home | 8-5 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-12 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 74.1 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#261) | -7.5 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#285) | -1.47 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.71 (#291) | -2.08 (#309) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#268) | 0.440 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTM | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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