Bitch, I'm me! "Stand Up" - Ludacris
Ohio Valley Conference · Kathleen and Tom Elam Center · January 25, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread UTM -5.5 Away covered
O/U 144.5 Over
Money UTM -280 / TNTC +230
Model Predictions
Spread Total UTM win
Actual TNTC +4 174 Lost
Massey UTM -5.0 (-9.0)
Massey Totals 145.5 (+28.5)
Bradley-Terry 68%
Weighted B-T 75%
Efficiency Plus ML UTM -5.5 (-9.5) 148.1 (+25.9) 78%
Baseline Tuned ML UTM -3.6 (-7.6) 143.7 (+30.3) 67%
Baseline ML UTM -3.9 (-7.9) 145.2 (+28.8) 64%
Baseline Plus ML UTM -3.8 (-7.8) 146.3 (+27.7) 67%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 27, 2026 UTM 6449 TNTC
Dec 20, 2025 UTM 8662 TNTC
Mar 6, 2025 UTM 7067 TNTC
Feb 21, 2025 TNTC 7166 UTM
Mar 1, 2024 UTM 8069 TNTC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UTM TNTC
Overall 14-19 15-17
Conference 9-11 10-10
Home 8-5 9-5
Away 5-12 5-10
Neutral 1-2 1-2
Last 5 3-2 1-4
Streak L1 L3
Avg Pts For 70.2 70.8
Avg Pts Against 73.2 74.1
Massey -5.9 (#261) -7.5 (#286)
Bradley-Terry -1.32 (#285) -1.47 (#300)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.71 (#291) -2.08 (#309)
RPI 0.444 (#268) 0.440 (#277)
Shooting & Four Factors UTM TNTC
FG% 39.7% 42.4%
3PT% 30.2% 35.3%
REB / G 37.8 34.2
OREB / G 12.9 9.3
AST / TO 0.84 1.22
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.1% 50.5%
TOV% 19.5% 17.9%
ORB% 33.1% 25.5%
FT Rate 23.4% 19.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.8% 49.6%
Opp TOV% 19.4% 15.1%
DRB% 68.9% 65.4%
Opp FT Rate 23.6% 16.4%

Game Analysis

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