Betting Lines
| Spread | TNTC -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | TNTC -115 UTM -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTM +3 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | UTM -0.4 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (-8.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTM -0.1 (-2.9) | 140.8 (-3.8) | 47% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTM -1.8 (-1.2) | 141.5 (-4.5) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTM -0.1 (-2.9) | 140.2 (-3.2) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTM -0.2 (-2.8) | 141.5 (-4.5) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UTM 64 – 49 TNTC |
| Dec 20, 2025 | UTM 86 – 62 TNTC |
| Feb 21, 2025 | TNTC 71 – 66 UTM |
| Jan 25, 2025 | TNTC 89 – 85 UTM |
| Mar 1, 2024 | UTM 80 – 69 TNTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNTC | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 9-11 |
| Home | 9-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#295) | -7.7 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#284) | -1.57 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.85 (#300) | -2.12 (#317) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#263) | 0.450 (#281) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNTC | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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