Betting Lines
| Spread | UTM -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | UTM -600 TNTC +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTM +11 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | UTM -11.7 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTM -9.3 (+1.7) | 149.7 (-0.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTM -9.4 (+1.6) | 150.8 (-1.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTM -10.2 (+0.8) | 148.2 (+0.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTM -9.6 (+1.4) | 148.2 (+0.8) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UTM 64 – 49 TNTC |
| Dec 20, 2025 | UTM 86 – 62 TNTC |
| Mar 6, 2025 | UTM 70 – 67 TNTC |
| Feb 21, 2025 | TNTC 71 – 66 UTM |
| Jan 25, 2025 | TNTC 89 – 85 UTM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTM | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-2 | 7-8 |
| Away | 9-7 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 64.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#210) | -11.1 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#170) | -1.94 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#192) | -2.22 (#324) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#145) | 0.420 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTM | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 30.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 6.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 18.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.8% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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