Betting Lines
| Spread | UTM -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | TNTC +114 UTM -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTM +24 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | TNTC -3.7 (-27.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (+5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNTC -1.8 (-25.8) | 141.0 (+7.0) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNTC -2.0 (-26.0) | 140.9 (+7.1) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNTC -2.8 (-26.8) | 138.1 (+9.9) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TNTC -2.5 (-26.5) | 140.2 (+7.8) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UTM 64 – 49 TNTC |
| Mar 6, 2025 | UTM 70 – 67 TNTC |
| Feb 21, 2025 | TNTC 71 – 66 UTM |
| Jan 25, 2025 | TNTC 89 – 85 UTM |
| Mar 1, 2024 | UTM 80 – 69 TNTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNTC | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 13-7 |
| Home | 8-6 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-12 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 64.7 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#199) | -1.6 (#188) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#186) | 0.24 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#169) | -0.04 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#194) | 0.494 (#182) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNTC | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 31.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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