Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | WAG -135 NHVN +114 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +3 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | WAG -4.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.7 (-6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -1.7 (+1.3) | 129.3 (-2.3) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -2.9 (+0.1) | 131.2 (-4.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -2.8 (+0.2) | 131.9 (-4.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -3.1 (-0.1) | 132.7 (-5.7) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | NHVN 80 – 74 WAG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | NHVN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-5 | 9-6 |
| Away | 6-12 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 61.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -9.8 (#307) | -11.3 (#324) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.02 (#334) | -1.84 (#324) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.63 (#337) | -2.41 (#324) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#307) | 0.445 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | NHVN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.0% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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