Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | RAD -355 UPST +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +12 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | RAD -5.1 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.3 (-27.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RAD -7.0 (+5.0) | 155.2 (-25.2) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -4.5 (+7.5) | 149.2 (-19.2) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RAD -4.5 (+7.5) | 151.7 (-21.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RAD -4.6 (+7.4) | 154.4 (-24.4) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | RAD 76 – 69 UPST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | RAD 79 – 69 UPST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | RAD 80 – 67 UPST |
| Mar 7, 2024 | RAD 67 – 60 UPST |
| Feb 3, 2024 | UPST 78 – 69 RAD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RAD | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 5-11 |
| Home | 12-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-8 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.8 | 75.7 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#244) | -7.1 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.11 (#268) | -1.47 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#266) | -2.00 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#279) | 0.454 (#267) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RAD | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.1% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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